NEWS · 20 January 2022
The government is in crisis.
Tory discontent with Boris Johnson has reached the point where Tory MPs are openly calling for him to go, including at prime minister's questions.
As we approach a likely no-confidence vote, the Tories find themselves in a lose-lose situation.
The fates of Boris Johnson, the Tory party and Brexit are all bound together. (The European press is right to call him 'Mr Brexit'.) With Johnson gone, the other two would tear themselves apart. There is no obvious leader to unite the Tory factions, and the next will likely be less identified with Brexit, and so less committed to it.
On the other hand, if they try to let him stay, their poll ratings continue to sink – and polling shows a disproportionate impact in Brexit-backing 'red wall' seats, with the Tories on track to lose all but three. The very voters who put Johnson in power have now turned on him.
On top of that, we will see the continuing effects of Brexit bite this year, including the 'cost of living crisis', most noticeably a huge rise in energy bills alongside food price inflation.
If the Tories lose the next election – and that is currently the way the polls are pointing – then any rational government, whether it is Labour or a coalition, would pursue single market membership at a minimum to rescue the UK economy. From there, it is a short road to Rejoin.
All of this will take years, not months, but today you can see the first dominoes falling.
What you can do
- If you have a Tory MP, send them a message pushing them to call for Boris Johnson to resign. Even if you don't usually get any sensible response, it is important to add to the number of emails they are getting on this issue.
- For now, keep the focus on the Downing Street parties and Johnson's future, even as the government furiously tries to distract from the issue.
- Be ready to credibly connect the cost of living crisis to Brexit, and, as a pro-European, to be part of campaigns on this issue.
